Investing in the busy real estate market of southern Vancouver Island and surrounding areas. New listings and sold signs can be seen around Victoria, B.C., on June 1, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Housing market ‘moderately’ vulnerable amid potential overvaluation of homes: CMHC

CMHC says there was a ‘moderate degree of vulnerability’ in the housing market as of the end of June

Canada’s housing market experienced overvaluation in some pockets of the country in the spring amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in a new report released on Monday.

In cities such as Victoria, Moncton and Halifax, there was a widening gap between the selling price of houses and the price economists would expect, based on population growth, disposable income, mortgage rates and employment, the Crown corporation said.

That data comes from the agency’s housing market assessment, which gives the housing market a grade based on whether homebuilding and rising prices could ultimately affect the stability of the economy. The report doesn’t look at whether homes are affordable — but does try to inform homebuyers and lenders on what would happen to the equity in their homes if a sudden economic shock led to a spike in unemployment, for instance.

CMHC says there was a “moderate degree of vulnerability” in the housing market as of the end of June, the same grade the market received in February.

The preliminary report shows the slowdown during the height of COVID-19 lockdown measures, but doesn’t include the record-setting sales in July and August — nor does the data reflect the ending of government income supports and mortgage payment deferrals.

Because the report’s analysis of home price overvaluation relies heavily on analyzing Canadians’ income, the authors suggested that the risk might be underestimated.

“The unprecedented income supports from Canadian governments to households (such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the Employment Insurance Benefits) provide relief to individuals experiencing financial hardship due to the COVID-19 crisis. These sources of income are, however, temporary,” said the report.

CMHC economist Bob Dugan said that — despite giving the housing market a steady grade this summer — CMHC still expects a severe decline in home sales and in new construction to come as the economy recovers from the pandemic.

“I don’t think we are out of the woods yet. I certainly hope our forecast is wrong,” said Dugan in a phone call with reporters.

In May and June, CHMC had given a grim outlook for the housing sector, including a steep decline in housing prices. Although realtors have reported record-high home sales and prices in July and August, Dugan said he is not convinced that there is a “sustainable basis” for the current homebuying demand.

“I’m not confident yet in walking away from some of our predictions, given the tremendous amount of risk to the economy and housing market,” Dugan said.

While Canada’s housing market as a whole does not show signs of overheating, outsized price acceleration or overbuilding, some regions do pose moderate risks, the report said.

Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary are areas where there is “moderate” risk of overbuilding, CMHC said, looking at both second-quarter data and monthly inventories from July and August.

In Edmonton, there has been increased construction of detached homes despite weak employment in the oil sector, while in Winnipeg, incoming migration has slowed, CMHC analysts said. Calgary, meanwhile, has seen row houses and townhomes sit empty as cost-conscious buyers opt for condos instead — leaving the city approaching its 2001 record-high of empty new builds.

The report also gave Canada a “low” risk of price acceleration, but noted that prices are rising moderately more quickly in Ottawa and Montreal. In Montreal, the supply of homes for sale was at a 16-year low, pushing prices closer to “problematic” levels.

The Ottawa and Montreal housing markets are also at a moderately higher risk of overheating, as are Hamilton, Ont., Quebec City and Moncton, CMHC said. Overheating happens when there is more demand to buy homes than there are listings.

“The high economic uncertainty and temporary public health and workplace safety restrictions placed on property showings caused a greater number of sellers to exit the market than buyers,” the report noted.

Anita Balakrishnan, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism? Make a donation here.

Real estate

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Katrine Conroy has won for the fifth time in the Kootenay West riding. Photo: Submitted
Katrine Conroy ready to tackle challenges after election

Conroy won the Kootenay West riding for the fifth time

Students at Stanley Humphries will be staging Nightmare on Seventh. L-R Emily Conley and Claire Cartwright are all dressed up and ready to go. Photo: Jennifer Small
Zombie apocalypse coming to Castlegar

High school students staging scary food drive

A view of the Burton Flats area. Photo: Submitted
Work progresses on man-made wetland near Burton

The project is already seeing modest results

Katrine Conroy
Katrine Conroy declared winner in Kootenay West

Preliminary results put NDP candidate firmly in the lead.

There are few details but neighbours a Second Avenue house in Chilliwack say a huge police presence descended on the home after shots were heard. (File photo)
RCMP looking for witnesses in $5000 auto part theft

Two catalytic converters valued around $5000 were taken Oct. 22

FILE – Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry provides the latest update on the COVID-19 pandemic in the province during a press conference in the press theatre at Legislature in Victoria, B.C., on Thursday, October 22, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. shatters COVID-19 records with 817 weekend cases; masks now expected indoors

Three people have died over the past three reporting periods

Commissioner Austin Cullen listens to introductions before opening statements at the Cullen Commission of Inquiry into Money Laundering in British Columbia, in Vancouver, on February 24, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
B.C. money laundering inquiry hears of $800,000 and more in bags, luggage, backpacks

The lottery corporation has said it consistently reported suspicious transactions to Fintrac

Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good

Pay it Forward program supports local businesses in their community giving

Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Some of the characters in the League of Legends video game. (Photo: na.leagueoflegends.com)
E-sports trial at B.C. high schools to start with ‘League of Legends’ team game

For fall launch, Vancouver’s GameSeta company partners with BC School Sports

A nurse performs a test on a patient at a drive-in COVID-19 clinic in Montreal, on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson
Interior Health sees 31 new cases of COVID-19 over record-breaking weekend

Eighty-six cases remain active and one person is hospitalized with the virus

RCMP have released more details regarding what led up to an arrest caught on video in Williams Lake Sunday, Oct. 26. (Facebook video screenshot)
Review launched after ‘high-risk, multi-jurisdictional’ chase, arrest in Williams Lake

RCMP launching a full review and code of conduct investigation

(Pxfuel)
B.C. limits events in private homes to household, plus ‘safe six’ amid COVID-19 surge

Henry issued a public health order limiting private gatherings to one household, plus a group of ‘safe six’ only

Most Read